A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
